Analysts and estimates
Estimates are provided by Infront and are based on projections from analysts who cover Swedish Match. Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts regarding Swedish Match performance made by analysts are theirs alone and not those of Swedish Match or its management. Swedish Match does not by providing or distributing this material imply its endorsement of or concurrence with such information, conclusions or recommendations.
Analysts
| Company | Analyst | Phone no |
|---|---|---|
| ABG Sundal Collier | Fredrik Ivarsson | +46-8-56628695 |
| BofA Merrill Lynch | Mirco Badocco | +44-207-9961761 |
| Barclays | Gaurav Jain | +44-20-35552501 |
| Carnegie | Niklas Ekman | +46-8-6768692 |
| Citigroup | Adam Spielman | +44-207-9864211 |
| Credit Suisse LLC | Faham Baig | +44-207-8880285 |
| Deutsche Bank | Gerry Gallagher | +44-20-75450251 |
| DNB Markets | Martin Arnell | +46-8-4734895 |
| Goldman Sachs International | Richard Felton | +44-207-5527872 |
| Handelsbanken | Karri Rinta | +46-8-7013636 |
| J.P. Morgan Cazenove | Jared Dinges | +44-207-1343951 |
| Jefferies | Owen Bennett | +44-207-0298431 |
| Morgan Stanley | Sanath Sudarsan | +44-207-4258259 |
| Nordea | Daniel Ovin | +46-10-1565685 |
| SEB | Andreas Lundberg | +46-8-7638533 |
| UBS | Robert Rampton | +44-207-5682014 |
Estimates
| Swedish Match Group | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSEK | 2019Q3A | 2020Q3A | 2020Q3E | 2018A | 2019A | 2020E | 2021E | 2022E |
| Sales | 3,829 | 4,400 | 4,082 | 12,966 | 14,739 | 16,367 | 17,537 | 18,723 |
| Growth (%) | 13.02% | 14.91% | - | 10.34% | 13.67% | - | - | - |
| Operating profit | 1,586 | 2,019 | 1,712 | 4,812 | 5,307 | 6,628 | 7,352 | 8,058 |
| Margin (%) | 41.4% | 45.9% | 41.9% | 37.1% | 36.0% | 40.5% | 41.9% | 43.0% |
| Profit before income tax | 1,526 | 1,914 | 1,639 | 4,531 | 5,060 | 6,328 | 7,019 | 7,697 |
| Profit for the year | 1,180 | 1,193 | 1,269 | 3,578 | 3,896 | 4,887 | 5,417 | 5,931 |
| Earnings per share (EPS), SEK | 7.04 | 7.44 | 7.91 | 20.63 | 24.28 | 30.46 | 33.76 | 36.97 |
| Dividend per share (DPS), SEK | - | - | - | 10.50 | 12.50 | 14.83 | 16.87 | 18.88 |
| Product areas | ||||||||
| MSEK | ||||||||
| Sales | ||||||||
| Smokefree | 2,315 | 2,842 | 2,680 | - | 8,914 | 10,632 | 12,037 | 13,247 |
| Cigars | 1,117 | 1,184 | 1,043 | - | 4,249 | 4,235 | 4,039 | 4,023 |
| Lights | 298 | 277 | 258 | 1,246 | 1,200 | 1,125 | 1,081 | 1,066 |
| Other operations | 100 | 97 | 100 | 353 | 376 | 375 | 380 | 387 |
| Operating profit | ||||||||
| Smokefree | 1,093 | 1,519 | 1,316 | - | 3,997 | 5,063 | 5,828 | 6,528 |
| Cigars | 423 | 471 | 381 | - | 1,577 | 1,521 | 1,488 | 1,498 |
| Lights | 88 | 57 | 42 | - | 238 | 206 | 195 | 193 |
| Other operations | -18 | -28 | -26 | - | -137 | -162 | -158 | -160 |
| Operating margin (%) | ||||||||
| Smokefree | 47.2% | 53.5% | 49.1% | - | 44.8% | 47.6% | 48.4% | 49.3% |
| Cigars | 37.9% | 39.8% | 36.5% | - | 37.1% | 35.9% | 36.8% | 37.2% |
| Lights | 29.5% | 20.6% | 16.2% | - | 19.8% | 18.4% | 18.1% | 18.1% |
| Other operations | -18.0% | -28.9% | -26.2% | - | -36.4% | -43.3% | -41.7% | -41.4% |
Number of contributors: 15
Last updated estimate: 2020-10-19
Oldest updated estimate: 2020-09-25
| Consensus recommendation | |
|---|---|
| Sell | 1 |
| Hold | 3 |
| Buy | 13 |
| Contributors | ||
|---|---|---|
| Barclays Capital | Deutsche Bank | Morgan Stanley |
| BofA Securities | Goldman Sachs | Nordea Markets |
| Carnegie | Handelsbanken Capital Markets | SEB Equities |
| Citi Investment Research | Jefferies International | Societe Generale |
| Credit Suisse | JP Morgan | UBS |
Comments
Estimates are continually updated by Infront.
Explanations
A - Actual (reported)
E - Estimate (average of forecasts)
Profit for the year - Profit attributable to the Equity holders of the parent
EPS - Earnings per share, basic, SEK from continuing operations
