Analysts and estimates
Estimates are provided by Infront Data (SME Direkt) and are based on projections from analysts who cover Swedish Match. Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts regarding Swedish Match performance made by analysts are theirs alone and not those of Swedish Match or its management. Swedish Match does not by providing or distributing this material imply its endorsement of or concurrence with such information, conclusions or recommendations.
Analysts
| Company | Analyst | Phone no |
|---|---|---|
| ABG Sundal Collier | Fredrik Ivarsson | +46-8-56628695 |
| BofA Merrill Lynch | Mirco Badocco | +44-207-9961761 |
| Barclays | Gaurav Jain | +44-20-35552501 |
| Bernstein | Callum Elliott | +44-207-1700502 |
| Carnegie | Niklas Ekman | +46-8-6768692 |
| Citigroup | Adam Spielman | +44-207-9864211 |
| Credit Suisse LLC | Faham Baig/Pieter Vorster | +44-207-8880285 |
| Deutsche Bank | Gerry Gallagher | +44-20-75450251 |
| DNB Markets | Martin Arnell | +46-8-4734895 |
| Handelsbanken | Karri Rinta | +46-8-7013636 |
| Jefferies | Owen Bennett | +44-207-0298431 |
| Morgan Stanley | Sanath Sudarsan | +44-207-4258259 |
| Nordea | Stellan Hellström | +46-8-53492202 |
| SEB | Gustav Sandström | +46-8-52229745 |
Estimates
| Swedish Match Group | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSEK | 2018Q3A | 2019Q3A | 2019Q3E | 2019Q4E | 2017A | 2018A | 2019E | 2020E | 2021E |
| Sales | 3,388 | 3,829 | 3,720 | 3,727 | 11,751 | 12,966 | 14,534 | 15,618 | 16,835 |
| Growth (%) | 16.23% | 13.02% | - | - | -24.44% | 10.34% | - | - | - |
| Operating profit | 1,305 | 1,586 | 1,428 | 1,420 | 4,592 | 4,812 | 5,629 | 6,145 | 6,794 |
| Margin (%) | 38.5% | 41.4% | 38.4% | 38.1% | 39.1% | 37.1% | 38.7% | 39.3% | 40.4% |
| Profit before income tax | 1,232 | 1,526 | 1,348 | 1,343 | 4,353 | 4,531 | 5,364 | 5,835 | 6,456 |
| Profit for the year | 959 | 1,180 | 1,055 | 1,043 | 3,400 | 3,578 | 4,182 | 4,545 | 5,027 |
| Earnings per share (EPS), SEK | 5.55 | 7.04 | 6.30 | 6.22 | 18.88 | 20.63 | 24.96 | 27.12 | 30.00 |
| Dividend per share (DPS), SEK | - | - | - | - | 16.60 | 10.50 | 12.39 | 14.05 | 15.84 |
| Product areas | |||||||||
| MSEK | |||||||||
| Sales | |||||||||
| Snuff and moist snuff | 1,601 | 1,935 | 1,841 | 1,978 | 5,485 | 6,127 | 7,107 | 8,092 | 9,494 |
| Other tobacco products | 1,384 | 1,496 | 1,462 | 1,315 | 4,634 | 5,240 | 5,631 | 5,710 | 5,782 |
| Lights | 310 | 298 | 314 | 348 | 1,291 | 1,246 | 1,238 | 1,233 | 1,216 |
| Other operations | 93 | 100 | 93 | 87 | 342 | 353 | 640 | 371 | 383 |
| Operating profit | |||||||||
| Snuff and moist snuff | 752 | 940 | 856 | 902 | 2,358 | 2,791 | 3,243 | 3,704 | 4,396 |
| Other tobacco products | 519 | 579 | 547 | 503 | 1,776 | 1,956 | 2,162 | 2,195 | 2,255 |
| Lights | 46 | 88 | 45 | 55 | 211 | 189 | 185 | 182 | 182 |
| Other operations | -12 | -21 | -26 | -41 | -126 | -124 | -131 | -130 | -131 |
| Operating margin (%) | |||||||||
| Snuff and moist snuff | 47.0% | 48.6% | 46.5% | 45.6% | 43.0% | 45.6% | 45.6% | 45.8% | 46.3% |
| Other tobacco products | 37.5% | 38.7% | 37.4% | 38.3% | 38.3% | 37.3% | 38.4% | 38.4% | 39.0% |
| Lights | 14.8% | 29.5% | 14.4% | 15.9% | 16.3% | 15.2% | 15.0% | 14.8% | 14.9% |
| Other operations | -12.9% | -21.0% | -27.5% | -46.7% | -36.8% | -35.1% | -20.5% | -35.1% | -34.1% |
Number of contributors: 12
Last updated estimate: 2019-11-12
Oldest updated estimate: 2019-10-07
| Consensus recommendation | |
|---|---|
| Sell | 2 |
| Hold | 1 |
| Buy | 11 |
| Contributors | ||
|---|---|---|
| Bank of America Merrill Lynch | Deutsche Bank | Jefferies International |
| Barclays Capital | DNB Markets | Morgan Stanley |
| Citi Investment Research | Exane BNP Paribas | Nordea Markets |
| Credit Suisse | Handelsbanken Capital Markets | Sanford C. Bernstein |
Comments
Estimates are continually updated by SME Direkt.
Explanations
A - Actual (reported)
E - Estimate (average of forecasts)
Profit for the year - Profit attributable to the Equity holders of the parent
EPS - Earnings per share, basic, SEK from continuing operations
