Outlook and risk factors
For 2017, on a full year basis, we expect Scandinavian snus as well as US moist snuff consumption to grow as measured in number of cans.
In Scandinavia, we expect the growth to be more modest than in 2016. We expect the level of competitive activity in the Scandinavian snus market to continue to be high.
For cigars in the US, Swedish Match expects the market to continue to grow during the remainder of 2017 but to remain highly competitive. Swedish Match continues to have the ambition to grow cigar volumes but note that the second half of 2016 was strong for cigar shipments. The year on year comparison for cost of goods for cigars will be adversely impacted by the FDA user fees through the third quarter of 2017. We expect the US chewing tobacco market to continue to decline.
Swedish Match will continue to invest in growth for snus and nicotine pouches outside Scandinavia. We expect continued growth in volumes and sales. The operating loss for snus and nicotine pouches outside Scandinavia is now expected to be lower than in 2016. The decision to invest in additional ZYN production capacity will predominantly affect capital expenditures in 2018.
The effective corporate tax rate in 2017, excluding associated companies, dividend from STG and non-taxable larger one-time items, is expected to be similar to 2016, assuming no changes to current tax regimes. There are currently general expectations that there will be a US corporate income tax reform. Due to the uncertain outcome and structure of such reform, Swedish Match makes no projections to whether the impact would be positive or negative for the Company.
The Company remains committed to returning cash not needed in operations to shareholders.
Source: Swedish Match Interim Report January-June 2017.
Risk factors
Swedish Match faces intense competition in all of its markets and for each of its products and such competition may increase in the future. In order to be successful the Group must develop products and brands that resonate with changing consumer trends, and price and promote its brands competitively. Restrictions on advertising and promotion may, however, make it more difficult to counteract any loss of consumer loyalty. Competitors may develop and promote new products which could be successful, and could thereby have an adverse effect on Swedish Match results of operations.
Swedish Match has substantial sales in the US, with products sourced from local US production facilities and imports from Swedish Match’s production facilities in the Dominican Republic and in Sweden. Swedish Match also has operations in Brazil, Norway and EMU member countries. Consequently, changes in import duties as well as in exchange rates of the euro, Norwegian krone, Brazilian real, the Dominican peso and in particular the US dollar may adversely affect the Group’s results of operations, cash flow, financial condition or relative price competitiveness in the future. Such effects may occur both in local currencies and when such local currencies are translated into Swedish currency for purposes of financial reporting.
Regulatory developments and fiscal changes related to tobacco, corporate income and other taxes, as well as to the marketing, sale and consumption of tobacco products, in the countries where the Group is operating may have an adverse effect on Swedish Match results of operations.
For a further description of risk factors affecting Swedish Match, see the Report of the Board of Directors in the published Swedish Match annual report for 2016.
Source: Swedish Match Interim Report January-June 2017.
